Thursday, September 20, 2012

FX Energy Kutno-2 valuation thoughts

Only about a 10% chance of success, but if successful...

Potential P50 resources = 4.75 net Tcf - assuming 10% porosity - I believe that this also assumes that the reservoir is 100% methane and is charged to the spill point.  Could be anywhere from 0% to 100% of spill point.

FX Energy gets 80% methane (20% nitrogen) from their wells so I will assume 80% methane for Kutno-2.  Could be anything between 0% and 100%

Assume PV10 = $2.55/mcf >> $2.55/mcf is the value of the proved undeveloped reserves (PUD's) of their Lisewo field

My guess is that the market will only value the PUD's at 50 cents on the dollar.

PV10 of P50 = 4.75 Tcf x 80% x $2.55/mcf x 0.5 / 53 million shares = $91/share (middle of bell curve)

I would guess the PV10 of the P90 to be roughly half or approximately $46/share (low end of bell curve)

We shall find out soon.

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