Sunday, March 15, 2015

Letter to Congressman Tom Reed to Support H.R. 1036

The Honorable Tom Reed
2437 Rayburn House Office Building
United States House of Representatives
Washington, D.C. 20515


Dear Mr. Reed:


As one of your constituents, I am writing you to request your support for H.R. 1036, Let The GSE’s Pay Us Back Act of 2015.


The housing market is nearly one quarter of the U.S. economy.  I believe that the economic well-being of the economy depends on the availability and affordability of the 30-year, fixed-rate, prepayable mortgage and that its existence depends on the existence of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The U.S. Treasury Department is currently confiscating all profits, denying Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac the ability to recapitalize, reducing their net worth to zero by the year 2018, and forcing taxpayers to be liable for any losses the GSE’s will incur.


Please support H.R. 1036 as it will ultimately allow for the preservation the 30-year, fixed-rate, prepayable mortgage.


Thank you for your time that you have taken to read this letter.



Sincerely,
Stanley J. Holland

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Fannie Mae - Bill Ackman's Key Assumptions for $23 - $47 per share

https://www.scribd.com/doc/222385650/Bill-Ackman-Ira-Sohn-Freddie-Mac-and-Fannie-Mae-Presentation

Saturday, February 21, 2015

Howard Hughes Presentation by Todd Sullivan

Blogger and analyst Todd Sullivan HHC presentation last week at the Boys and Girls Harbor conference:

http://www.tilsonfunds.com/HHC-2-15.pdf

same file on my Scribd page: https://www.scribd.com/doc/256467619/Presentation-for-HHC-2-15

Todd conservatively estimates the stock worth ~$250 per share

Todd Sullivan was spot-on about GGP in 2009/2010.  I would have made even more money in the stock if I had followed his advice.  Specifically, Todd made a great call after GGP made the agreement with secured creditors.  GGP was ~$4 per share and I sucked my thumb instead of massively increasing my position.

Saturday, February 7, 2015

Crude Oil NYMEX Futures (WTI)

If the graph below turns out to be roughly right for the actual WTI prices realized, then there will be a lot of bankruptcies in the oil and gas sector.


Saturday, January 31, 2015

Canadian Oil Sands 12-Jan-2015 Presentation

Latest presentation from Canadian Oil Sands

https://www.scribd.com/doc/254317836/Canadian-Oil-Sands-12-Jan-2015-Presentation

Note the USD$55 - $60 per barrel break even cost on slide 7.

I was planning on initiating a position on Friday because I anticipated a dividend cut (which happened) and a share price drop (which actually closed up 20%).  I may initiate a position anyway.  Syncrude produced its first oil in 1978 and will be around longer than I will and is way too cheap at this price.

Morningstar analyst report dated 22-Dec-2014 below

http://analysisreport.morningstar.com/stock/research?t=COS&region=can&culture=en-US&productcode=MLE

Morningstar gives fair value of $17 CAD and current price is $7.85 CAD