Saturday, February 21, 2015

Howard Hughes Presentation by Todd Sullivan

Blogger and analyst Todd Sullivan HHC presentation last week at the Boys and Girls Harbor conference:

http://www.tilsonfunds.com/HHC-2-15.pdf

same file on my Scribd page: https://www.scribd.com/doc/256467619/Presentation-for-HHC-2-15

Todd conservatively estimates the stock worth ~$250 per share

Todd Sullivan was spot-on about GGP in 2009/2010.  I would have made even more money in the stock if I had followed his advice.  Specifically, Todd made a great call after GGP made the agreement with secured creditors.  GGP was ~$4 per share and I sucked my thumb instead of massively increasing my position.

Saturday, February 7, 2015

Crude Oil NYMEX Futures (WTI)

If the graph below turns out to be roughly right for the actual WTI prices realized, then there will be a lot of bankruptcies in the oil and gas sector.


Saturday, January 31, 2015

Canadian Oil Sands 12-Jan-2015 Presentation

Latest presentation from Canadian Oil Sands

https://www.scribd.com/doc/254317836/Canadian-Oil-Sands-12-Jan-2015-Presentation

Note the USD$55 - $60 per barrel break even cost on slide 7.

I was planning on initiating a position on Friday because I anticipated a dividend cut (which happened) and a share price drop (which actually closed up 20%).  I may initiate a position anyway.  Syncrude produced its first oil in 1978 and will be around longer than I will and is way too cheap at this price.

Morningstar analyst report dated 22-Dec-2014 below

http://analysisreport.morningstar.com/stock/research?t=COS&region=can&culture=en-US&productcode=MLE

Morningstar gives fair value of $17 CAD and current price is $7.85 CAD