Sunday, April 5, 2015

Case for Pershing Square Holdings

I plan to increase my small position in PSHZF to a large position for the following reasons:

1) Pershing Square has a track record of ~20% APY over the last ten years, and I expect that level of performance to continue.  I believe that Bill Ackman is an activist version of the next Warren Buffett.  I believe that buying Pershing Square Holdings now will produce similar returns to buying Berkshire Hathaway back when it was of a similar size.

 2) Large capitalization shareholder activism has the benefit of significant barriers to entry to prevent large capital flows into the strategy.

3)  Pershing Square's portfolio management approach is inherently low risk (where risk is defined as the probability of a permanent loss of capital).

4) Pershing Square generally invests in higher quality businesses with dominant defensive market positions that generate predictable free cash flow streams and that have modestly or negatively leveraged (cash in excess of debt) balance sheets.  Pershing Square buys these businesses at deep discounts to its estimate of intrinsic value giving a margin of safety against a permanent loss of capital.

5) Pershing Square often seeks investments where they can effectuate positive change to catalyze the realization of value.  This serves to accelerate the recognition of value, helps avoid "dead money" situations, and protects PSH somewhat from managerial actions which can destroy value.

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