Thursday, May 23, 2013

My latest thoughts on HRT Participacoes

HRT released results for their Wingat well on 20-May-2013.  The odds for their giant Murombe prospect, which is only 15 km away, just got a lot better.  In my last article, I used a 0.5 risk factor to account for the possibility of finding gas instead of oil.  Although oil found is not in commercial quantities, the Wingat well confirmed that the source rocks are oil generating.  This nearly eliminates the risk of finding gas, which I assume to be worthless, and slightly increases the 23% chance of success for Murombe assigned by DeGoyler and MacNaughton.  "[The Wingat] reservoir quality is much less developed than origanlly expected".  The Wingat reservoir is a carbonate shelf.  The Murombe reservoir is a basin floor fan. The reservoir risk for the two reservoirs are completely independent.

Using the assumptions in my last article and 657 million fully diluted shares I calculate the following:

23% chance of success
Approx 11% chance of finding the P50 (median) quantities - intrinsic value = $26/share
Approx 2% chance of finding the P10 quantities - intrinsic value = $48 to $98/share

At the current share price of $0.71, I figure there is a 1 out of 9 chance of making at least 36x on my money with a chance of up to 138x.  We will find out in August 2013!

There is a healthy chance of losing all of your money on HRT, but I believe the following provides a decent chance of partial downside protection:

Moosehead prospect - to be drilled immediately after Murombe - 6% chance of finding P50 quantities - intrinsic value = $13/share and 1% chance of finding P10 quantities - intrinsic value = $46/share

Solimoes assets - see my 2nd HRT article

High returns are a possibility, but a bust in Namibia is a probability - don't risk more than you can afford to lose!

6-JUN-2013 UPDATE - There is a flaw in the above reasoning - The source rocks found in Wingat are above the Murombe prospect and can not charge Murombe - deeper oil source rocks are theorized to charge Murombe - I believe it is prudent to use the 0.5 oil vs gas risk factor for Murombe that I used in my last article - oil source rocks found at Wingat will charge the Baobab prospect though if the trap and reservoir are good

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