Using the assumptions in my last article and 657 million fully diluted shares I calculate the following:

23% chance of success

Approx 11% chance of finding the P50 (median) quantities - intrinsic value = $26/share

Approx 2% chance of finding the P10 quantities - intrinsic value = $48 to $98/share

At the current share price of $0.71, I figure there is a 1 out of 9 chance of making at least 36x on my money with a chance of up to 138x. We will find out in August 2013!

There is a healthy chance of losing all of your money on HRT, but I believe the following provides a decent chance of partial downside protection:

__Moosehead prospect__- to be drilled immediately after Murombe - 6% chance of finding P50 quantities - intrinsic value = $13/share and 1% chance of finding P10 quantities - intrinsic value = $46/share

__Solimoes assets__- see my 2nd HRT article

High returns are a possibility, but a bust in Namibia is a probability - don't risk more than you can afford to lose!

**- There is a flaw in the above reasoning - The source rocks found in Wingat are above the Murombe prospect and can not charge Murombe - deeper oil source rocks are theorized to charge Murombe - I believe it is prudent to use the 0.5 oil vs gas risk factor for Murombe that I used in my last article - oil source rocks found at Wingat will charge the Baobab prospect though if the trap and reservoir are good**

__6-JUN-2013 UPDATE__
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