Renewable Energy Group (REGI)

Error of omission:

This happened just the way the following article predicted.  I read the article last summer, but failed to take action.

https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/RENEWABLE_ENERGY_GROUP_INC/9233055699

Another writeup here:

https://www.docdroid.net/tJT1NRd/wolf-hill-2019-year-end-letter.pdf#page=2

Hamish Hume 9-Jul-2019 article

Hamish Hume 9-Jul-2019 article on the recommended path forward

https://www.americanbanker.com/opinion/recap-of-fannie-and-freddie-must-protect-shareholder-rights

500 page Deutschebank report on oil and gas industry

https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/files/DEUTSCHEBANK-AGUIDETOTHEOIL＆GASINDUSTRY-130125.pdf

Oil hedging

According to Darren McCammon:

investment banks will only allow hedging of 75% of known production with that being reduced to 55% for Gulf offshore producers during the July-October hurricane season.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4176531-conversation-energy-xxi-gulf-coast?ifp=0

Old Harry articles

http://snapqc.org/uploads/Potentiel_Old_Harry_2015-05-08_Eng.pdf
http://www.naturalresourcesmagazine.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/v12n2_oldharry.pdf

Vilas Fund’s Investment Thesis for Walgreens

Walgreens is a compelling buy. The company is trading at roughly 10 times next twelve-month net income estimates, grew its earnings per share by 27% last quarter, continues to gain market share both organically and through store acquisitions, and should continue to grow markedly faster than nominal GDP with rising prescription volume derived from new therapies and the aging population worldwide. Because the company has compounded its earnings per share at roughly double the pace of the S&P 500 for a very long time, the shares have averaged roughly 22 times trailing earnings over the last 30 years, ignoring the late 1990's bubble period. Below please see the chart of Walgreens' next 12 months' P/E ratio, which is currently near the financial crisis lows:

If we assume that Walgreens continues to grow its earnings to $8 per share in three years, in line with current analyst estimates, and sells at 16 times those earnings per share, far below its long-term average, the stock would reach $128, a double from today's price of $64. However, with this better-than-average growth, the multiple could rise back to its long-term average of 22 times earnings. This would equate to $176 per share, up 175% from here. Because of this, we think that Walgreens will be the largest creator of profits in the Fund over the next few years.

Visa, Inc. Investment Thesis

Visa, Inc. (V)

http://www.edgemoorinv.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/4Q-2017-Newsletter.pdf

Visa is the largest provider of electronic payment processing services, with a 58% global market share compared to the 26% market share of its closest competitor, MasterCard. Visa is accepted by 44 million merchants worldwide and has over 3.1 billion cards in circulation, twice that of MasterCard. The Visa network processed $8.2 trillion worth of transactions in the twelve months ended September 30, 2017, more than MasterCard, American Express, and Discover combined. Over 16,800 financial institutions are part of Visa’s worldwide network, the biggest in the industry.
Visa's growth has been propelled by increased consumer spending as the global economy has recovered and by the increasing use of digital payments over cash transactions. Still, more than 85% of the world’s retail transactions are conducted with cash or checks, leaving significant upside for all electronic processors to grow. For consumers, the transition from cash to plastic brings numerous benefits including convenience, safety, and increasingly attractive rewards programs.
In June 2016, Visa completed its acquisition of affiliate Visa Europe for EUR18.3 billion. The combination provides scale advantages, cost savings, and revenue opportunities to Visa, as the company will now capture 100% of Visa Europe’s growing cross-border volumes, fees, and profits. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to Visa’s earnings this upcoming year. Visa is also eyeing expansion in China, where the state bank clearing system was recently opened to Visa and MasterCard to launch card-processing networks as early as 2018.
We consider Visa’s financial position to be sound, with high operating margins, strong free cash flow, and modest debt. Management is shareholder- friendly and returned $8.5 billion to investors during 2017 in the form of stock buybacks and dividends. Visa stock trades at a premium to the market at 27.9 times estimated 2018 earnings, but we believe that premium is justified by the company’s dominant market position, strong brand equity, and significant growth prospects driven by Visa Europe.